Yield Forecast Calculator
Most APR calculators tell you what you'd earn if everything stayed constant for a year. But that's not how liquidity provision actually works. Trading volume drops on weekends. Volatility spikes during market events. Your actual returns depend on when people trade, not just how much.
The Yield Forecast Calculator simulates a full year of liquidity provision with realistic market conditions. It accounts for weekday versus weekend trading patterns, volatility events that boost or reduce your fees, and daily compounding effects. Instead of a simple "50% APR = $5,000 on $10,000," you'll see how your balance actually grows day by day when yields fluctuate.
Why This Matters
If you've been providing liquidity for a while, you've probably noticed that your daily earnings aren't consistent. Monday through Friday, you might see steady fees as traders swap tokens. Then Saturday and Sunday roll around, and everything slows down. The volume drops, your fees drop, and your effective APR for those days is much lower.
Then there are the volatility events. When SOL spikes 20% in a day, or ETH crashes during a market panic, trading volume explodes. Your fees can multiply during these periods. But when markets are quiet and sideways, you might go days with minimal trading activity.
This calculator lets you model those real-world patterns. You can set different APRs for weekdays versus weekends, add probability-based volatility events, and see how compounding affects your returns over a full year. It's not a guarantee of future performance, but it's a much more realistic projection than assuming constant yields.
How It Works
Start by entering your principal investment-the amount you're planning to put into a liquidity pool. Then set your base APRs. Weekday APR is what you expect Monday through Friday, when trading is typically more active. Weekend APR is usually lower, reflecting the drop in weekend trading volume.
The volatility settings let you model market events. Hot days are when something big happens-maybe a major announcement, a market crash, or a sudden price spike. These days see multiplied returns because trading volume explodes. Cold days are the opposite-quiet periods where trading slows to a crawl and your fees drop significantly.
You can set the probability of these events occurring and how much they affect your returns. A 5% chance of a hot day with a 2x multiplier means roughly one day out of twenty will see double your normal APR. A 10% chance of a cold day with a 0.1x multiplier means roughly one day out of ten will see only 10% of your normal APR.
The daily compounding toggle lets you see the difference between simple interest and compound interest. With compounding enabled, your earnings each day are calculated on your growing balance. Without it, you're just tracking simple interest on your original principal.
What You'll See
After you configure your settings, the calculator runs a 365-day simulation. The results show your total earnings, your final balance, and your average effective APR across the entire year. The average APR accounts for all those weekday/weekend differences and volatility events, giving you a more realistic picture than a simple base rate.
The projected growth chart shows your balance over time. You'll see the curve isn't smooth-it reflects those weekend dips and volatility spikes. This visualization helps you understand how variable yields affect your returns in a way that numbers alone can't convey.
The daily logic breakdown explains exactly how the calculator applies your settings. It shows your base rates for weekdays and weekends, plus the probability and multipliers for hot and cold days. This transparency helps you understand what assumptions are built into your projection.
Real-World Examples
Let's say you're considering a stable pool with moderate volatility. You might set a 30% weekday APR and a 10% weekend APR, with a 2% chance of hot days (1.5x multiplier) and a 5% chance of cold days (0.5x multiplier). This simulates a relatively stable pair where most days are normal, but you'll occasionally see volatility spikes or quiet periods.
For a volatile pair like SOL/USDC during active market conditions, you might use an 80% weekday APR and a 20% weekend APR. Hot days could happen 10% of the time with a 3x multiplier, while cold days might occur 15% of the time with a 0.1x multiplier. This reflects the reality of high-volatility pairs where trading can be feast or famine.
Stablecoin pairs are different. You might see a 15% weekday APR and a 12% weekend APR, with minimal volatility-maybe a 1% chance of hot days (1.2x multiplier) and a 2% chance of cold days (0.8x multiplier). The yields are lower, but they're also more consistent.
Important Limitations
This is a simulation tool, not a crystal ball. Real trading volume fluctuates in ways that can't be perfectly predicted. Market volatility can be more extreme or less extreme than your assumptions. And this calculator doesn't account for impermanent loss, protocol fees, gas costs, or other factors that affect your actual returns.
Use this tool to understand how variable yields affect your annual returns, compare different APR assumptions, and visualize potential growth scenarios. But don't use it to guarantee specific returns or make investment decisions without considering all the risks involved.
Remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. A pool that paid 50% APR last month might pay 20% this month if volume drops or competition increases. The calculator helps you plan, but liquidity provision requires ongoing monitoring and adjustment.
Other Tools to Consider
This calculator focuses on yield forecasting, but you'll also want to understand impermanent loss. Check out our Impermanent Loss Calculator for standard 50/50 pools, or our Concentrated Liquidity IL Calculator for positions with price ranges. For a complete overview of all available tools, see our Liquidity Calculators guide.
YieldForecast
Advanced annual earnings simulator with variable daily APRs. Model complex market conditions including weekday/weekend variance and volatility spikes.
Configuration
Volatility Settings
Total Earnings
$4,549.42
+45.49% ROI
Final Balance
$14,549.42
After 365 Days
Avg. Effective APR
37.52%
~0.103% Daily
Projected Growth
*Simulation based on probability distribution. Actual market results may vary.
Daily Logic Breakdown
Weekdays (Mon-Fri)
Base Rate: 50% APR
The standard operating rate for the majority of the year.
Weekends (Sat-Sun)
Base Rate: 10% APR
Usually lower volume/yield days.
Volatility Events
- Hot (2x):5.0% chance
- Cold (0.1x):10.0% chance